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I don't understand why Lincoln felt the need to preserve the Union so much as to propose a Constitutional amendment to maintain slavery (1861), so long as the Union were kept intact. What would the harm been to the North (or to the United States) had the South broken away? Obviously, there would have been a tremendous shift in the economy of the North and there would have been other changes, but would it have been any different from any divisions in European countries that were going on in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries?
Those divisions in Europe have worked out so well? Don't let 50 years of peace in Europe fool you, the only reason there has been relative peace in Europe since 1945 is first the Cold War and second the way European countries have let their militaries become ineffective under the shield of the US. That shield is going away and military budgets are quietly creeping up. Expect another European war within 10-15 years. Probably over something stupid too. I also fully expect the EU to fracture under the continuing pressure of the Euro crisis. A North-South split is coming in Europe with England staying out of both sides. Their is a reason right wing conservative parties are consistently gaining in elections. I expect the left to try and stop the right through the courts or laws since they cannot win at the ballot box much longer.I would also say that in the long run, the devastation and loss of life in the Civil War was worth it as the US has been better off united than we probably would have been if the split had become permanent.
Two issues – first, I meant to compare America to Europe simply to say that there was precedent for morphing national borders, which would have made the real possibility of a break something that was understandable to nineteenth century politicians. Today, the relative stability of national borders makes the prospect of countries (or even states) breaking apart more difficult to accept, IMO. Even if Lincoln did not think it prudent for the South to secede, he evidently felt more strongly about the Union than he did about the prospect the right of states to break apart. Something else had to be driving this desire for the Union, I suspect.Second - whoa, you think there's a European war looming in the next decade or so? Maybe we should break this off into another thread, but this sounds like something to talk about. Are you saying an intra-European war, or just a war involving European countries with the outside? I can understand the fracturing of the European economy in the future, but an all-out war?
I would not be surprised to see a European war in the next decade or so. I can think of two potential sparks.1. A fiscal revolt by the PIIGS group and other southern tier countries against the fiscal tyranny of the Northern tier that escalates into violence. I consider this scenario more likely because I suspect the Northern tier countries, Germany specifically, will eventually cut off the bailout tap to the south rather than face fiscal ruin themselves. 2. A quasi civil war across Europe as the Muslim minority makes themselves felt and feels capable of intimidating concessions out of native European. We have already seen shadows of this in the Riots in France of a few years ago and the increasingly aggressive Muslim push for the construction of mosques and Islamic cultural centers. The Muslims, or at least Muslim leadership, have also gotten much more slick at playing the victim/race card and using Western civilization. I consider this to be less likely in the short term but a real long term threat. It is also likely to be bloodier when the showdown comes as I don't see most native Europeans calmly accepting the coming Dhimmitude.There are a few other possibilities as well and don't discount Russia as a destabilizing influence on the Eastern periphery of Europe. Either way, I have a gut feeling that the long European peace is shortly going to end. Heck, I have the feeling for the world as a whole. The wars in Iraq and Afghanistan are mere sideshow compared to what I think is coming.
About your second statement, I do agree with you. People here are getting more and more fed up about what is now considered as a real inside threat.
