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China has risen to top positions among world nations at different times in history. One aspect, however, that has remained the same is their persistence in controlling the comments made about them. 600 years ago, when the Chinese armada was the mightiest in the world, the ships would sail from country to country making everyone say that China was the centre of the world, and having rulers pay tribute to the Chinese emperor. Today, China is rising, and is quick to use its new economic muscle to counter opinions contrary to its policies, as can be seen in the recent Nobel prize awards and in the dispute over the Diaoyu Islands with Japan. As can be seen in the article below, neither side is willing to back down from sole ownership. http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/3766b9fe-d91c-11df-b6af-00144feab7de.htmlThe US has an agreement with Japan to protect the nation in a war, however, considering the strain on America?s military in the Middle East, China?s new anti-aircraft carrier missiles, and American public opinion, could the US defend Japan in a war?
The US and China will never go to war over Japan. Taiwan maybe, but doubtful. America and China are joined at the hip economically now so a war would be very bad for business on both sides.
Do you mean are we militarily capable?
I mean militarily, politically and psychologically. Basically, I'm wondering if Japan will go ahead and build up its own military because it will assume America just can't live up to its comitment if called upon.
The US and China will never go to war over Japan. Taiwan maybe, but doubtful. America and China are joined at the hip economically now so a war would be very bad for business on both sides.
Good point, Donald, but keep in mind that this very factor is what makes China feel so bold and confident. Prior to Chinese acquisition of $700 billion in American bonds they never would have contested the islands. Now, they hesitate not, feeling that American dependence on China is greater than Chinese dependence on America, so, without significant opposition, China may just take the islands by force. This leads to the next part of the issue, which is how strong China would become if they start to acquire all which they feel is theirs in Asia? That includes Taiwan.
I think saying the US would never go to war with China over Japan is a little strong. I can conceive of us going to war with China over Japan. Japan is a vital trading partner and a strong democracy, don?t let memories of WWII cloud you?re thinking of the Japanese, they are no more the same people today than the Germans are still a bunch of Nazis. Both nations are vital allies of America.As to any perceived Chinese economic dominance. I don?t see how we would be hurt economically in a shooting war with China, if anything that would give us an incentive to revitalize our manufacturing sector and we could make our own cheap toys and clothing. What would hurt us is the amount of technology manufacturing and heavy industry that has left the US for China and elsewhere. We would be in a poor position to rapidly grow our military because industrial plant is sorely lacking in this country.Lastly, any war we engaged in with china would most likely be purely naval in nature. It would also mostly involve us sinking their ships. The Chinese don?t have a blue-water navy but they are rapidly trying to build one. A war with china right now might not be a bad thing depending on one?s point of view. It also depends on how long such a war would last. Of course, we also need to get out of the quicksand that the Afghan war has become. The Afghan war gives the impression that we are overstretched and to an extent that is perhaps true. But the US military is by no means so committed that we have nothing left to confront China with.Before China can attack Japan they would have to go through both the US and Japanese fleets. The Japanese have a military and a good one despite the fact that they have not fought since WWII. The Prussians did not fight a major land between 1815 and 1866 yet they still went through the Austrian army like a knife through hot butter. I would not discount the Japanese military either. Check out GlobalSecurity.org for a look at what Japan has in the way of a military.
So, Donald, what would you say Obama would do if the North Korans attacked the South? You know, China has an interest in this, too. Kim Jong-il?s older son, Kim Jong-nam, is living in China, and when the younger brother Kim Jong-un set out to assassinate his older sibling, Chinese agents prevented it. Apparently the Chinese feel they could obtain power there through Kim Jong-nam.http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2010/10/13/2010101300417.html
Obama would do nothing. Biden might go to war, but we'll never know about him. I'm not sure a war would be in our best interest. We could probably keep China off of Japan and Taiwan with our superior navy, but China would take it nuclear anyway, so what would we gain?
Come on, Donald! Let?s give Barack some credit. I mean, he would be mauled if he stood by and did nothing. While we all agree that wars are not in anyone?s best interest, showing the opposition that you?re not willing to fight is basically asking them to attack you. I think he would defend the south. Based on Scout?s analysis, both China and Korea would try to draw the US into a land confrontation. If we think back to the Korean War, we can see that, despite taking far more casualties, these two were able to create a stalemate against the US, and might look to do the same. They might also try to draw others into the ordeal. If anyone turned this into nuclear, well that?s all she wrote. How about the others? Would Obama fight? How do you guys see it?
A serious land war with China would eventually force us to go nuclear if we wanted to achieve victory. Absent that we would have no choice but settle for some sort of return to the status quo antebellum.
So, based on this discussion, is it correct to conclude that we have the military capabilities, but are not politically prepared to defend Japan in a war against China?
So, based on this discussion, is it correct to conclude that we have the military capabilities, but are not politically prepared to defend Japan in a war against China?
I would agree with that statement. The corollary to this discussion like any discussion about alliances is that an alliance, in particular a defensive, is only worth the credibility of an alliance member to live up to the terms of the agreement. 65 years ago the US was more than willing to defend Japan, I don't think that is true as much today as it was then. I think there is a much more narrow view of what constitutes self-interest in Foggy Bottom today than in the past. US foreign policy is much more isolationist over the past 15 years than world events would lead you to believe. If you look at American intervention overseas since the end of the Cold War the pattern looks much like the 1920's than the 1950's or '60's. I certainly don't see the US getting involved in a major(read conventional) war without a direct threat to the US homeland and an attack on Japan does not rise to that standard in Wash. though I would argue it probably should.
Oh I think if China went all out against Japan, we would move in and try and stop them, but I don't see China risking that either. Historically, the Chinese are not that belligerent. They meddle in the affairs of their neighbors (see North Korea and Vietnam), but they have no desire to take over their land. The Chinese leadership are so paranoid that a major war could destabilize their hold on power, they do everything in their power to avoid it. They have decided instead to wage economic war, which will ultimately achieve the same objectives. The Chinese are very methodical and patient. They see things in terms of centuries rather than decades as we do. Their long term planning is way beyond ours. In the meantime, they will milk the American economy for all it's worth, and then move on to the next phase of their geo-political master plan.
