- This topic has 4 voices and 6 replies.
-
Posts
-
Today is the official end date of the U.S. involvement in the Iraq War. A historically-important date, to be sure, but one which may be glossed over depending on what plays out in the near future (e.g. 6 months – 1 year).US formally ends Iraq war with little fanfare
I am for some reason reminded that the Vietnam War officially ended for the US in 1973 with the signing of the Paris Peace Accords but the fighting did not stop until 1975 when the North overran the South in a conventional campaign. Remember, some of the most famous photos from the Vietnam War were when the US evacuated it's embassy in 1975. Formal declarations of anything have little meaning in an insurgency. The Iraq War s not over, it is just moving into a new phase. The real question is what is al Sadr going to do? We already know he has the support of Iran and he has said that when America leaves the struggle for Shiite control really begins. We just have to wait and see.
I agree that the story of Iraq is probably far from over. Yet I am reminded of the “formal” end to the Roman Empire, a date which is useful to remember, even though nothing much changed in the Roman world with its passing. We will have to wait for history to unfold to see the significance of what happened yesterday.
We'll likely see Iran become a major world power in the next few years. Welcome to the Crusades ver 2.0.
We won the Iraq War when Saddam was captured and his sons kiled. We had no grand strategy in place for winning the peace. We had forgotten what happened after our relatively easy defeat of Spain in 1898 — the vicious Moro War in the Philippines over the next several years that took over 4,000 American lives and set us on a collision course with Japan who coveted the islands. Our first attempt at nation building eventually succeeded. I am not optimistic about Iraq.
Ski, I seriously doubt that Israel will allow Iran to become a major world power. I suspect that we would see Tehran glowing in the dark before that happens. A lot depends on what the next US administration is willing to stand for as well. It is largely geopolitics as usual as far as I can see.
Israel doesn't stand a chance (without the US) against a Russia/China backed Iran. All these Arab Springs and Iraq will be within Iran's sphere of influence.
I have no doubts that if they fall, Israel will go out in a blaze of glory leaving Tehran, Damascus, and Cairo smoking holes at a minimum. The open sources I have seen say Israel has at least 20-30 10-20kt warheads and probably many more. They are the most open of the undeclared nuclear powers but nobody really knows how large their weapon stockpile is.Their backs are to the wall and where would the Jews go, Europe? I think not, the Jews will stand and win or lose on the shores of the Sea of Galilee, they will not submit to a second Diaspora nor should they in my opinion.
