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I read an interesting piece here: (Baby Bust) that makes the claim that the current recession is really a depression and looks to be a long one because of demographics. He makes the telling point that the there are simply not enough young people in the west to pay for the retirement of everyone coming up for retirement. This is not a new argument; people have been saying this for years with regard to Social Security. However, the demographics of the west are not something that is generally mentioned. The narcissistic lifestyle of many westerners leads them to put off having children or only have one or even none at all. Rare indeed today is the person with a big family. Anecdotal impression tells me that most people have few children. I remember when I was a kid most of my friends had 2 or more siblings. I personally have 3 brothers and 3 children myself, my little brother has 3 children, my older brother has 5 children, and my oldest brother has 3 children. We are all anomalies. Most of my friends now have at most 1 or 2 kids, if any. Why is this? Is it narcissism or something else?The 3rd world continues to breed like rabbits and if the west does not increase their fertility we will be drowned in a sea of 3rd worlders. Maybe that is just the fate of the West.
I can believe that, and not many people seem to know about it or care. What I fear is the culture clash that this will lead to and the cultural changes that will likely take place. If the West changes in racial makeup, then that's fine, so long as the culture remains constant. As for why the birthrate in the West is dwindling compared to that of other areas of the world, there are a few answers that come to mind.
A huge influx of people of non-western origins can have no other consequence but to change the culture. What we need to do is try to hold the line and simultaneously raise the birthrate. The question is how to do that? I personally think as long as so called liberal/progressive views prevail that think abortion is fine to be used as birth control and trumpets the wonders of the narcissistic lifestyle that this will not change. We need a return to traditional values about the family. I am not advocating a submissive role for woman but rather an acknowledgement that family is just as much if not more important than having a good time.I am not going to hold my breath though.
I think that non-westerners with higher populations are going where the demand for labor is, and in the west there is a higher demand for labor to support the kind of lifestyle that people want to live. Yes, I agree that this can only change the culture with massive migrations. People can be assimilated into the majority culture when migration takes place gradually, but when large pockets of subcultures get big enough and strong enough they can turn into factions. Factionalism breeds conflict. Simply look to the riots of France from the past few years as an example of this in action.I don't know if there's any single answer to the problem but one solution may be to "bail out" the stay-at-home-mom or dad. Economic incentives could help people choose to have more children. I admit, though, that this is only addressing one part of the problem; it presumes that people are actually willing to procreate more.
I am afraid that the current situation of the West is too similar to that at the end of the Western Roman Empire. We are in decline with no good way out. I also dont think the west can do as the Romans did and dominate culturally, there are many vestiges of Roman civilization around even today. I dont think the West will do that. Too many westerners are convinced that Western civilization is evil, that never happened in Rome. Even the barbarians were impressed by the greatness of Rome.As to economic incentives to procreate, the German government provides parents a subsidy for every child they have until the child reaches 18. It is called "Kindergeld" and amounts to about 150 Euro a month for each child. The money is only available if the child is a german citizen. It does not seem to have increased the german birhtrate though. I still think it is a good idea.
Too many westerners are convinced that Western civilization is evil, that never happened in Rome. Even the barbarians were impressed by the greatness of Rome.
That's a good point. I think that means the culture's common moral disposition regarding "good" and "evil" has greatly shifted. I do think that in the face of great catastrophe it can be "re-aligned" so that these values are in line (such as what happened immediately after 9/11), but obviously we don't want to be wishing for a catastrophe in order to realign our values.What I think will play out in Europe will be more extreme than in the U.S. over the next few decades. It may be the case that Europeans realize what is happening and decide to do something to stop it. We've started to see the rise in some far-right politicians over there already, and they will become more and more popular in the future. If they have enough support they may implement major immigration reform.
Too many westerners are convinced that Western civilization is evil, that never happened in Rome. Even the barbarians were impressed by the greatness of Rome.
That's a good point. I think that means the culture's common moral disposition regarding "good" and "evil" has greatly shifted. I do think that in the face of great catastrophe it can be "re-aligned" so that these values are in line (such as what happened immediately after 9/11), but obviously we don't want to be wishing for a catastrophe in order to realign our values.What I think will play out in Europe will be more extreme than in the U.S. over the next few decades. It may be the case that Europeans realize what is happening and decide to do something to stop it. We've started to see the rise in some far-right politicians over there already, and they will become more and more popular in the future. If they have enough support they may implement major immigration reform.
Unfortunately, I think we are in the position of having to wait and see what happens. Hopefully, people will start to think more critically and rationally and less emotonally. I think the length and severity of the current economic downturn will do much to shape the man-on-the-streets perceptions of what the west should look like. The critical thing is if the left paints the economy as being a result of unbridled capitalism as the American media seems to be doing. If that argument sticks then I am convinced restoring pride in Western Civilisation will be a long row to hoe indeed.
http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/10565Jim Collins on Charlie Rose, his book is about how corporations fail but the model can easily be applied to a country, civilization or one person. The discussion with Robert Wright is an interesting take on the role of religion.
