Obama is going to get a second term as long as the economy holds together and he follows through on his promise to pull the troops out of Iraq.  But if the dollar collapses and he gets us embroiled in a conflict with Iran, he's out.

Given the current political climate, no way he gets a second term.  As to the economy, it looks to be sinking into stagflation and not getting any better anytime soon.  All of his proposals entail growing the debt, which means we will have to pay it back sometime.  Conservatives need to keep harping on the economy and they will win and win big.I do not think any of the current suspects will be the nominee in 2012.  I foresee someone coming out of the shadows, like that woman in Minnesota, Michelle Bachman I think.  Palin is too divisive to be broadly popular and much as I hate to say it Romney is a Mormon and that hangs around his neck even though it should not.As to Ron Paul, he is flaky.  On some things he is dead on, on others he is way out in left fied.  He is like pat Buchanan in that respect.  Occasionally Buchanan nails it but the rest of the time he just puts out lunatic ravings.Here is a good quote from a post on IMAO I saw today that nails the problems with Ron Paul in a humorous manner.

Obligatory Ron Paul Won The CPAC Poll PostPosted by Basil at 4:46 pmNews outlets are playing up the CPAC straw poll that Ron Paul won.Some are asking ?What does this mean?? Others are saying ?Here?s what this means.?Being a conservative blogger ? I?m a better at being a conservative than I am at being a blogger ? it?s my duty to either ask what it means, or say what it means.So, I?ll do neither.Instead, I?ll tell you why Ron Paul is a nutcase: Because he?s nuts.Oh, sure, he has some good ideas. There are many, many issues where he and I agree. And, where we disagree, it?s likely an issue where I?m more conservative than he.But, there are areas where I agree with Barack Obama. Like sending more troops to Afghanistan. If the military says they need more troops, they should get more troops.And, if we want to play to ?I agree with ?? game, it could done with just about anybody.And, on lots of issues, Ron Paul is right.But, he?s like that crazy uncle that fought in the big war. He was right about so many things, and has done a lot of good. But also walks down to the post office and pees on the plastic plants in the corner.That?s Ron Paul. Here?s an old CNN video where he says he doesn?t accept the 9/11 commission findings, and says that our presence in the region contributed to the attacks.

The 2012 election wil be interesting but any debate about who will run now is academic at best.  The big question is what will happen this fall.  I would love to see the Republicans make gains such that neither party has control of both houses.  What we really need is for government to shut down for a good while and let people see the mess this country is really in.  We need realists in office and not hacks who only try to bring home the bacon while spreading the pain wide enough that they can deflect the blame from themselves.